The Way This Strange Season Redefined the Conventional Coach of the Year Mould.

Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It frequently serves as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the biggest upset.

But the current race is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent underperformers ascending in unison. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a wild and fun year, he's facing multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still